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The French “notaires “ recently published their property market study for Paris conurbation.

  • Property price in Paris are likely to go below EUR 8000 /m2
  • The number of transactions – in the Paris conurbation (region “Ile de France”)- decreased by 10% from September to November 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. The number of transactions recorded by the notaires are based on “actes de ventes” (final contract) which are signed off 2 to 3 months after the “compromis de vente” (preliminary contract). Therefore, these statistics reflect transactions negotiated between approximately June and August 2014. The notaires (equivalent of British “solicitors”) record all property transactions.
  • Initial results of number of transactions at the end 2014, should lead to a low sales volume in December 2014.

Please do refer to our post “buying or selling property in France, compromis de vente or promesse de vente?”

The “departments” of Ile de France which experienced the sharpest drop are:

  • Paris -16%
  • Hauts de Seine -13% (affluent area bordering Paris on the West side)
  • Yvelines -19% (farther West of Paris)

The notaires commented that the drop in sales volume was due to the ending of the exceptional 25% rebate on capital gains tax (CGT), which was terminated at the end of August 2014. Consequently, many property sellers were in a hurry to sign the final contracts before the end of August to benefit from the temporary CGT rebate.

  • During September-November 2014 property prices recorded at the signature of the “acte de vente” declined by 1.5%, however the decrease is limited to 0.6% after correction for the seasonal factor (CSF).
  • Flats decreased by 1.4%, (0.7% after CSF), with a deeper decrease in the outer suburb (“grande couronne) by 1.6%, compared to the near suburb (“petite couronne”) at –1.1%.
  • Houses prices were down by 1.8% (0.5% after CSF)
    Flats prices in Paris went down by 1.5% in 3 months, with an average price at EUR 8 030 / m2 at the end of November 2014 (based on “actes de vente” or final acquisitions contracts).
  • The notaires expect an average price for Paris at EUR 7 860/ m2 in March 2015 based on the current price recorded in “compromise de vente” (preliminary contracts)
  • On the same basis, the notaires forecast a 2 to 3% price decrease in the suburb (“petite” and “grande couronne”)

According to the reliable website “meilleursagents.com” the negociated price (at the signature of the preliminary contracts “compromis de vente”) have been under 8000 /m2 since October 2014. Considering the 3 months time lag between the “compromis de vente” and the “acte de vente”-final contract, there is not doubt that the threshold has been crossed.

“meilleursagents.com” gives an average property price at EUR 7886/m2 in January 2015 (again it is at the “compromis de vente”) for Paris “intra-muros”.  This is more than 10% below the highest price reached at the end of 2011.

In the suburb the average prices stand (1st column for flats, 2nd for houses):

Essonne (91) 2 686 € / m² 2 712 € / m²
Hauts-de-Seine (92) 5 389 € / m² 5 570 € / m²
Paris (75) 7 886 € / m² 7 987 € / m²
Seine-Saint-Denis (93) 3 126 € / m² 3 030 € / m²
Seine-et-Marne (77) 2 679 € / m² 2 218 € / m²
Val-d’Oise (95) 2 782 € / m² 2 781 € / m²
Val-de-Marne (94) 3 990 € / m² 3 883 € / m²
Yvelines (78) 3 692 € / m² 3 241 € / m²

You will find below the average price in Paris for a flat,  by arrondissement at 1st of February 2015 and the variance since the 1st of November 2014:

Paris 1er arrondissement 9 874 € / m²

-1.6%

Paris 2ème arrondissement 8 882 € / m²

-0.3%

Paris 3ème arrondissement 9 769 € / m²

+0.6%

Paris 4ème arrondissement 11 771 € / m²

+2.3%

Paris 5ème arrondissement 11 275 € / m²

+2.6%

Paris 6ème arrondissement 12 510 € / m²

+0.5%

Paris 7ème arrondissement 12 085 € / m²

+0.2%

Paris 8ème arrondissement 9 800 € / m²

-0.5%

Paris 9ème arrondissement 8 468 € / m²

+0.9%

Paris 10ème arrondissement 7 513 € / m²

-0.1%

Paris 11ème arrondissement 7 850 € / m²

-0.3%

Paris 12ème arrondissement 7 622 € / m²

+0.6%

Paris 13ème arrondissement 7 196 € / m²

+0.1%

Paris 14ème arrondissement 8 179 € / m²

-0.3%

Paris 15ème arrondissement 8 404 € / m²

0%

Paris 16ème arrondissement 8 804 € / m²

-1.4%

Paris 17ème arrondissement 7 886 € / m²

-0.9%

Paris 18ème arrondissement 7 163 € / m²

-0.1%

Paris 19ème arrondissement 6 151 € / m²

-0.9%

Paris 20ème arrondissement 6 302 € / m²

-0.6%